The number of “analysts” who follow the amateur baseball draft is about 1/20th the size of that which follows the NFL, but of those who do follow baseball, the consensus seems to be that the Red Sox just hit a 430 foot home run. It will take years for this week’s picks to confirm such talk but at this point, this much is clear …. The Red Sox drafted a lot of guys who the pointy-headed scouts have good things to say but it will be awfully expensive to sign all of them up.
That last point is important. The Sox, by all accounts, were not shopping at Kohls or JC Penny these past two days. Instead, they were over at Nieman Marcus taking down the high-priced stuff. This is what Baseball America’s Jim Callis had to say on Twitter about the shopping spree: “Every Red Sox pick so far has a seven-figure asking price. If they sign them all, great haul.” That was through four rounds, which means it applies to six players as the Sox had three picks in the “extended” first round. The Sox then when out and selected a guy in the sixth round, KENDRICK PERKINS, who also looks to be on the pricey side. All told, the Sox are on the hook for big money if they want to bring all these players into the organization.
There is a clear moral to this story and it is this: The Red Sox feel that this draft or the 2011 draft will be the last one in which they will be able to throw their money around with impunity so they decided to go large. Really large. Why other big market teams didn’t act in a similar fashion is a head scratcher.
Here is the issue. Right now, there is no pay regime for the draft. The league recommends what players picked in a certain spot or certain round are paid, but there are no binding requirements. So teams like the Red Sox can pay a kid a million dollars in the third or fourth round to get him out of his college committment. However, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire in December of 2011 and the expectation is the new CBA will come with a hard slotting system that will reduce player bonuses and eliminate a club’s ability to overpay for a prospect. This is intended to level the playing field and it may be with us as early as next year.
Looking forward, the Sox moved to get it while they can. And here are the results. The first six players they selected are all listed on the top-100 list of ESPN’s Keith Law. Moreover, the list of draftees scores equally well if you use Baseball America’s rankings. As such, the amateur baseball blogosphere is fawning over this haul.
Now it won’t be cheap to bring this entire heard into the organization. If Callis is right, the top six players could collectively cost $8M to sign. That isn’t a non-starter as I figure that the Sox spent $12M on amateur signings in 2008 and $15M in 2009. This includes international signings and the Sox have already spent a deuce on Latin players this year. You add that to the 8M that it will cost to get the “big-six” signed, and you are up to ten million, leaving anywhere from $2-6M left to sign less expensive later-round draftees and one or two additional international players. This total is more than double what some clubs spend on amateur talent.
Again, there is no telling how this investment will pay off but what strikes me as odd is why other big market teams didn’t follow suit. The Yankees mysteriously went covert this draft, picking guys that weren’t on anyone else’s board. In fact, laughs could actually be heard in the MLB studio when the Yanks firsts round pick was announced. The Cubs as well. And there is a thought the Dodgers picked a guy in the first who is un-signable just because they didn’t want to spend money on this draft.
Anyways, the Sox system, which was in good shape before this draft, looks to be plenty stocked at this point. Heading into this draft, there may have been an organizational concern that next year, the system might have gotten a little top-heavy. In particular, the positional ranks at high-A Salem isn’t looking too exciting in 2011. But having now re-stocked the cupboard with some college guys who could move quickly, that Salem gap no longer looks like much of a problem. Truth be told, if the Sox can bring this whole crew aboard, the Sox system looks about as sound as I have ever seen. And if Ryan Westmoreland can bounce back from his issue, the Sox pipeline looks like it will be turning out talent for years to come.
Back to Foulke 