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Will the Muddy Chicken Be the Next HOF Second Baseman?

Joe Morgan’s peak came just as I was learning baseball and as I have said many times in this space, none of your first-person source material deserves any weight (or respect) until you are at LEAST ten years old. Having said that, as a competent witness for his entire career, Roberto Alomar was the best second baseman I ever SAW and I congratulate him on his entry today into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

As Alomar receives baseball’s highest honor, the spotlight for the day is on second-base and given that, I would like to point something out …. The Muddy Chicken is quietly putting together a hall of fame resume. Granted, his bus isn’t pulling into Cooperstown just yet but he’s headed West on highway 90 and he just passed Springfield. Continue reading

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Reddick-ulous!

It could come as early as July 18th. Or, because of a variety of circumstances, it may be pushed off until the July 22-24 Seattle series. But the day of reckoning is coming. Or should I say, the day of Reddicking!

I am sure Manager Terry Francona is dreading the moment. But with Carl Crawford coming off the DL shortly, Francona  soon faces that dreaded moment where he will have NO choice but to sit a HEALTHY JD Drew and write Josh Reddick’s name on the lineup card. Against a right-handed pitcher, no less.

Being a loyalist to veterans, Francona is loathe to ever side with an up-and-comer over one of his established guys. That is why AARP considers Francona to be one of their closest allies in the managing ranks. But in this instance, the case is open and shut. Reddick deserves to play. And Reddick will play.

No longer can Francona protect Drew. The aging and disinterested Drew has brought this upon himself with a level of play that can, at best, be described as uninspiring. The numbers don’t really need much illumination. Suffice to say, they are terrible and show no signs of lifting. And as Drew throws up one hitless night after another, it becomes clearer that there are no sizzling streaks left in his bat. Continue reading

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Like Portugal’s Debt, Tuesday Night Red Sox Victory Downgraded to Junk

Earlier today, Portugal had its debt downgraded to junk. A similar thing happened tonight in Boston where S&P was ready to bestow a solid “investment grade” rating on the Red Sox victory over Toronto but in light of Jon Papelbon’s meltdown, my sources tell me the victory’s rating has been reduced to junk. And truthfully, one has to wonder if it actually was a win as it sure seemed like Eddie Encarnacion’s right foot touched home before Jason Varitek touched him for the game’s final out. Oh well, they all count the same.

Just a few thoughts on tonight …..

* The big news is obviously Jon Lester and his early departure. The Sox are saying he strained his lat and Comcast’s Sean McAdam has a source telling him that means two weeks. If that is the case, it might mean just one start. Here is the math … Lester will miss his Sunday start but with the break, the Sox could slot him at the back of the rotation coming out of the break, meaning he would go again on Tuesday, July 19. Sounds like two weeks to me, no?

* What will the Sox do on Sunday? It could mean a spot start for Ace Aceves. Or the Sox could dig into Pawtucket and bring up Kyle Weiland or Kevin Millwood.  Both would have to be added to the 40-man, a fact that probably leaves Aceves in the lead to make that start. That said, Mike Cameron’s departure leaves an opening on the 40-man so I wouldn’t rule out Weiland, particularly since he has been burning up the International League since mid-May.

* Tonight’s Pap meltdown was probably a little overdue. But boy, you could really feel it pick up steam after Bautista took him deep. I can forgive the Bautista shot but giving up a big hit to John McDonald is hardly the stuff of heroes. As far as saves go, that was about as “hack” as they come.

* To all the Buster Olney’s of the world … “THAT IS WHY YOU BLOCK THE PLATE!” Nice sling by Darnell, by the way.  I am just about done with Darnell but it is worth mentioning that Carl Crawford probably throws an incompletion there.

* Here is a wonderful piece of reactionary logic from our friend Pete Abraham tonight. Check out this tweet: “I’d doubt Lester starts Sunday. Sounds like a DL for sure. More to come after the game.” Pete, if Lester is headed to the DL “for sure,” that doesn’t leave much room for “doubt.”

And finally, after two years of unemployment ….. I start a new job tomorrow. This time, I will be writing about the markets and framing investment ideas for a reputable (and expensive) subscription-based news service. I’ll still be blogging here, but brevity will be a theme going forward.

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Should the Red Sox Stop Serving John Lackey?

Here is a frightening statistic that relates to the human disaster that is John Lackey. Since 2000, “63″ is the worst “ERA+” of any qualifying starter in the AL. That horror show authored by Jose Lima in 2005. Mind you, “100”  is indexed to an average league pitcher. Well, this morning, John Lackey’s ERA+ weighs in at 54, which is grotesquely lite ….. even for a junior flyweight who just made it through 39 days of Survivor.

Lackey’s three-length lead in this distasteful category can be partially explained by the fact that most pitchers, when they are experiencing horrible seasons, are cutoff before they can amass enough innings to “qualify.” So guys like Dontrelle Willis, who in 2008 couldn’t find home plate much better than John Wall, doesn’t’ pop up when one screens for horrifying ERA+ totals.

The logic here is quite clear. At some point, teams don’t let their guys go out there to be killed every fifth day. True, the Royals and Tigers let helpless guys like Jose Lima and Nate Robertson take the ball often enough to qualify for dubious year-end distinctions, but that says more about those club’s poor options than it does about their masochistic tendencies. Continue reading

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Say Goodbye To Mike Cameron

I was wrong!

This is what I had to say about the Mike Cameron signing on December 15, 2009:

“Folks, Mike Cameron is not Willie Mays. He’s not Ken Griffey. And he probably isn’t Ellis Burks. That being said, he’s not Jay Payton either. Instead, Cameron is a relatively affordable guy who is a GREAT fielder and can rake left-handed pitching. And at just under $8M/yr, he represents good value, provides the RS with lots of flexibility, and should prosper at Fenway Park.”

It turns out Cameron didn’t hit anything, he couldn’t stay healthy, he gave the Red Sox no flexibility and his value ended up being in the red, not the black. Ultimately, his WAR over 1.5 seasons was -1.0, meaning a replacement player would have provided more production at roughly 6% of the cost.

The Sox simply had no choice but to Euthanize Cameron. His impotence at the plate had been diagnosed as chronic, he was beginning to look challenged in the field and he was taking up a roster spot at a time where the Red Sox need more options, not less.

The obvious replacement is Danial Nava who is nursing second degree burns from a blistering June. Granted, Nava didn’t blow anyone away after he made his historic debut last season, but he slashed 402/500/561 in June and even a 240/310/370 split would be a big improvement over Cameron.  Another replacement could be Yamaico Navarro who might not be a regular outfielder but with Kevin Youkilis walking around on a bruised wheel, the Sox might opt for a little inf-of flexibility.

We can now close the book on Cameron and truthfully, Cam’s signing is one of the worst blemishes on Theo Epstein’s resume. Certainly on par with Julio Lugo and in the conversation with John lackey. And with that, I would like to apologize to Jay Payton for implying back in 2009 that Mike Cameron was not in your league. It turns I was wrong.

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Adrian Gonzalez is Not Being Asked to Return Punts!

There is one reason and one reason ONLY why it might not be a great idea to put Adrian Gonzalez in RF during the Sox upcoming nine-game tour through the National League. And here is a hint …. It has nothing to do with remote possibility that Gonzalez might get hurt out there.

But that is what some critics of the move are hanging their hat on, arguing that moving Gonzalez to RF needlessly exposes the Mexican Masher to injury. Put him out there, and Manager Terry Francona is putting the season on the line, some apoplectics argue.

Wait a second. Is there some peer-reviewed medical study that confirms – or even suggests – that a player’s risk of injury is noticeably higher in right field than it is at first base? Did I miss that entry in the latest Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine? If so, it is probably because I was too busy reading these reports on Albert Pujols broken arm.

Folks, nobody is suggesting that Gonzalez return punts, fight the Mexican drug cartels or grab a mop and clean up one of those Fukushima reactor vessels. He is being asked to swap gloves and play right field three or four times.

To think that this is a risky proposition one has to think that playing RF is somehow more dangerous than playing first base. The scientific literature is silent on this issue and common sense tells us that if there is an increase in risk, it is statistically insignificant. Beyond that, if you weigh that increase against the fact that Gonzalez will only be out there a few times, the odds of something bad happening, relative to the odds of something bad happening while Gonzalez is at first are infinitesimally small.

A much better reason for opposing the move is simple … Gonzalez might suck out there. Remember Kevin Youkilis out in left? Well, there is no saying this won’t be worse. Much worse. And that could ruin Gonzo’s groove at the plate and lead to runs for the opposition. If you are going to oppose the move, it is on these grounds that you should base your argument.

But please, stop with the injury talk. Because Adrian Gonzalez is perfectly capable of running down fly balls without pulling up lame. So if it were up to me, I would give him a shot out there. And if he looks even modestly comfortable, I’d give him a second shot. Not because I want him out there regularly. But because I want David Ortiz to hit and I will try almost anything that keeps JD Drew and Mike Cameron on the bench.

Batting third and playing right field …. Adrian Gonzalez.

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Lackey Loses Another Fight With Adversity

Was it really a surprise that John Lackey wasn’t able to overcome a thirty-eight minute rain delay and handle the worst offense in the National League? More importantly, was there anyone out there who didn’t wager during the delay that Lackey would come back and immediately issue a four-pitch walk? That was free money for the taking.

So we got another puny and gutless performance from Senor Lackey this afternoon. Hardly sharp before the delay, Lackey came back onto the field after play resumed and simply crumbled. Here is the sequencing for those who missed the car wreck: four-pitch walk. Hit batter. Bunt single. Strikeout. Walks in run. Hits Bartlett to score another. Wild Pitch scores a third run. And a Single to right scores a fourth. FOUR RUNS ON ONE HIT! Sayonara Johnny.

Surely, John’s post-game comments will be chalk full of excuses. He’ll talk about not being able to get a grip and the moisture and the delays. Maybe he’ll add something about his problems at home. You can’t rule out some mention of a health issue. On the board at 5-1 is the possibility he will bring up “The Killing” and how the finale really screwed with his between-start routine. And this is a real longshot, but I just bet two chips that he links today’s outing to the passing of either Clarence Clemons or that jackass from Jackass.

In Lackey’s defense, the conditions today at Fenway were pretty crappy, particularly after the delay. But I can’t offer total absolution because Lackey’s performance in the fourth inning was particularly puny and particularly gutless. Yes, it was raining. And the conditions weren’t great. But rather than show grit and focus, Lackey wilted and then quit. Hopelessly over-matched when pitted against some precipitation.

This should have surprised nobody because one of many things that Lackey has proven since coming to Boston is the following: HE CAN’T PITCH THROUGH ADVERSITY. When the competition is soft and he gets a clean trip, he can be serviceable. But the second he gets bumped, he is vulnerable to a collapse. Today he got bumped. And then he collapsed. Really just par for the course when it comes to John Lackey.

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Miller Hardly Thrills In His Fenway Debut

Not since February 26, when Sox prospect Kyle Weiland was given the ball to face Northeastern, has a Boston starter faced a softer lineup than the one Andrew Miller faced last night. So it figured that Miller would be able to dazzle in his Fenway debut. Maybe ring up eight over seven innings. Make a couple of AAAA players look foolish. Perhaps scatter five hits and a couple of runs.

No matter the competition, a performance like that would have stoked the partisans and instantly turned Miller into an “option.” Big arm. Sharp hook. Sneaky change. “This guy is the real deal,” would have been the theme heard on today’s radio shows.

Unfortunately, Miller’s performance last night didn’t quite fit this narrative. Up against a PUNY lineup, Miller was only able to get 17 outs and not before he gave up seven hits, three walks and three runs. That line translates into a game score of 46, which is really more like a 36 when you discount it for the quality of the completion. And “36,” according to my baseball dictionary, is synonymous with neither “option” or “real deal.”

Look, it is only one game so it is hardly fair to label the Miller “experiment” a failure just yet. And in Miller’s defense, he did show a pretty nasty “swing and miss” hook. But I expected more from Miller against the Pacific Coast League Padres. The same Padres who are last in the NL in scoring, last in hitting and last in slugging.

That Miller wasn’t able to dominate that lineup is hardly enough evidence needed to convict Miller of a crime. But it is a piece of evidence that leads to further questioning. And if subsequent starts against Pittsburgh and Houston don’t produce better results, it seems like Miller won’t be an “option” when the schedule rolls back to the AL time zone.

And just in case you think I am making too big a deal about the Padres incompetence, this is all you really need to know. The Red Sox were so unimpressed with tonight’s competition that they decided to give Josh Beckett the night off. The thinking being that the club can throw just about anyone out there and probably pick up a win. Now the club is saying that Beckett has “the shits” but do you really think Montezuma’s Revenge would have led the Sox to scratch Beckett 20 hours before a start against New York or Tampa?

Obviously, the big loser here is Beckett who might have easily thrown another one-hitter tonight, thus lengthening his slim lead in that Cy Young race. But those are the breaks and into the void steps Alfredo Aceves, the Sox number eight starter coming out of Spring Training. His credentials as a competent “fill-in” need little cementing but the bet here is he will do just fine as Beckett’s fill-in. I can’t say the same about Miller next weekend in Pittsburgh.

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Adrian Gonzalez is Channeling his 1979 Freddy Lynn

As  Adrian Gonzalez was going nuts on Friday night, I began to wonder how his season was stacking up against some of the great Red Sox offensive seasons in history. Obviously, he isn’t in Teddy Ballgame’s league. But with an OPS of 1007, and something closer to 1100 since April 23, Gonzalez is laying the foundation for something Herculean.

But as I was doing some research, I stumbled upon a season that caught me by surprise. Obviously, Yaz had a few monsters. So too have Manny and Ortiz. Rice’s 1978 is a benchmark to measure righties in the non-steroid era. And Boggs had an absolute killer in 1987. But tucked into all of that was an absolute Laser Show from Freddy Lynn in 1979.

As a big Lynn-kid growing up, I have always remembered Freddy’s 79 as a big one but my memory does not do it justice. Check out this montage:

* Lynn’s slash line that year was .333/.423/.637. He led the league in EACH of those categories.

* You can do the math, but Lynn’s OPS that year was 1059 and his OPS+ was 176. Again, he led the league in both categories.

* He slammed 39 bombs and roped 42 doubles. Those totals were good for second and third in the AL.

* On top of all that, Lynn led the league in a bunch of sabre-shit like “wins added,” “runs created” and “all-around studliness.”

If someone were to throw up a season like that today, in a Sabre-centric world, he would walk away with the MVP at year’s end. Well, guess where Lynn finished that year? Try fourth, buried behind Don Baylor, Ken Singleton and George Brett.  Now Brett had a decent sabre-case but the only reason the other two guys were in the conversation was because they played on division winners and put up big RBI numbers. With RBIs having been marginalized as a relevant stat in recent years, I am confident that if you re-held the 1979 vote today, Fred Lynn probably has a second MVP in his trophy case.

That brings us back to Gonzo who is loudly moving in Lynn’s direction. He may not lead the league across the board,but  he he tops the AL in hitting and is third in OBP and Slugging. On top of that, he leads the AL in hits, doubles, total bases and RBI. Add it all up and Gonzonkulous looks like he leads the AL MVP pack by about a length as we approach the half-mile pole. There is still a lot of race to go, but the Mexican Masher is having a Lynn-like year and if it continues, you can bet your ass he won’t be finishing fourth in this year’s MVP race.

[Last note on Lynn ... how did the Red Sox trade Lynn a year removed from this onslaught. I realized he got dinged up in 1980 but to deal someone who won the sabre Triple Crown a year earlier for Joe Rudi and Frank Tanana seems a bit tortured.]

 

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The Bruins Rise Again!

This SI cover, from 1977, used to be a part of a 16 square foot collage that hung in my room, right over there at 2474 La Condesa Drive. I’m not entirely sure why, but I loved that cover and gave it a prominent spot in my evolving tribute to Boston Sports.

Now  I was not even eight years old when that SI came in the mail box. And it had only been eighteen months since I had adopted the Red Sox. But in the meantime, I had scooped up the Celts and tied myself to the Pats. So by April of 1977, all I was missing was the Bruins. That all changed when I got my hands on that SI.

Now hockey has never been a passion of mine. I’ll admit that. But it was never because I didn’t’ like the game. Instead, it was because it wasn’t that easy to get into a sport when you live in Southern California, your team is in Boston and there is absolutely no coverage available. Sure, my dad stepped up every year and took me to see the Bruins when they came to town. And I would track the Bs through boxscores, stat tables, and 50 word blurbs in the LA Times. But that was the extent of my commitment early on.

But being a “Boston” fan in the eighties, I would step up my commitment each April when the playoffs rolled around. And while I never made big investments in the Bs and therefore was never despondent over a playoff exit, I did have some skin in the game. The one exception was 1983 when I thought Pete Peters was going to lead the Bs to the Cup and was pretty upset when the Islanders squashed that plan. Continue reading

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Monday Will Be Miller Time At Fenway

“He’s obviously a huge part of the Organization and he is going to stay that way.” Terry Francona, 5/15/11

So who is Francona talking about? Jon Lester? Adrian Gonzalez? Did Jacoby just ink an extension? Nope, Sir Tito’s line was used this afternoon to describe none other than Andrew Miller, a guy the Red Sox signed on December 16th to a minor league deal. And the award for the most generous use of the word “huge” goes to …….. Terry Francona for his June 15th Andrew Miller Commercial.

So this is the story … Andrew Miller has been throwing great at Pawtucket. Andrew Miller had a June 15th opt-out in his contract. And the Red Sox knew he was a goner if they didn’t promote him so guess what … the Boston Red Sox will now move forward with a six-man starting rotation.

According to the Globe’s Pete Abraham, it looks like Tim Wakefield will stay in the rotation and throw Sunday. Miller will then go on Monday against San Diego, meaning Beckett and the rest of the staff will all be pushed back a day. From there, who knows what will happen but if I had to guess and assuming Miller throws well on Monday against San Diego’s challenged offense, I would say the Sox will stick with six guys for another turn and then do some tinkering after the off day on June 27. Continue reading

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SI’s Jon Heyman Sparks Red Sox To Big Comeback Win

The start was pushed back 210 minutes. The team was facing a late-night flight. Some self-satisfaction had to have seeped in from winning the first two games of a three-game series in the Bronx. They’d be facing a top-shelf starting pitcher. No Pedroia. And an EARLY two-run deficit. Add it all up and last night’s contest, much like a Sunday-night affair in Detroit two weeks ago, had all the makings of a game that the Sox would dump in the mailbox.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the post office. Josh Beckett settled down. Josh Beckett threw up a bunch of zeros. Sports Illustrated columnist Jon Heyman put a jinx on the Yankees when he went gaga for CC. David Ortiz got another hit off a lefty. Nick Swisher fell down. Mike Cameron dialed back his clock six years and scalded a game-tying double. Jason Varitek kept things rolling. Jacoby Ellsbury continued to cause damage. Gonzo and Youkilis added some insurance. And David Ortiz gave David Robertson a lesson in “payback.”

When all the smoke had cleared, the Sox led the East by two games, Heyman had established himself as one of the sport’s best contra-indicators and the Sox had chalked up a win that will certainly be one of the regular season’s ten best.

Four weeks from now, last night will be remembered for two things. First, the “rally.” And second, the “beaning,” as in CC Sabathia’s decision to stick David Ortiz in the hip with a 97 MPH fastball. Yankee fans have long been clamoring for such justice and the mutts finally got their wish. That the pitch was more likely 94 (NY uses a super hot gun) and Ortiz smiled as he walked down to first probably left some wanting more but at this point, it would seem like the case on Ortiz is closed. And if the past is any indication, I would expect the cicadas to show up again before a Yankee hurler takes another shot at Ortiz.

While those will be the two lasting impressions from last night, I would like to shed light on a couple of things worth mentioning.

First, Josh Beckett was excellent once again. And importantly, he has now stuffed the Yankees three times and in each instance, CC was the opposing pitcher. “Three” is sufficient to establish a trend and at this point, it is safe to say that Beckett has put his recent troubles against the Yankees to rest. He had been dominant against the Bombers this season and that is certainly not something that anyone expected when the season started. Coming off two middling starts, it was nice to see Beckett snap back last night.

But it might have all gone for naught if Heyman hadn’t opened his big mouth at 12:30 last night. I say that because the Sox were floundering at the time, heading into the seventh, on the short end of a 2-0 score. But Heyman then tweeted:

#yankees might as well just add the 3 yrs and $69 mil to cc’s deal now. #optout#nobrainer#capncrunch

Well, over the next fifteen minutes, the Sox reached the summit of Mount Sabbathia, planted their flag, destroyed CC’s line and left the big guy 0-3 against the Sox this season. No doubt, Heyman’s tweet came at the absolute intra-night high for CC’s stock and the pundit is now left owning a $69M extension that probably trades in the gray market for no more than $60. Nice trade Johnny Jizz! And by the way JJ, are you available in the future if the Sox need to mount a comeback against a Price or Ogando?

Having dispensed with that …. Just a few more thoughts on the Sox sweep of the Yanks this week.

  • First off, that gun in NY is really frigging hot. You knew that was the case on Tuesday when Papelbon was ringing up 97s and Bard was clocking 100s but we saw a lot more of it last night with CC at 97 and Beckett at 96. Sorry Charlie, that gun just isn’t telling the truth.
  • Michael Kay and Mike Francesca .. you guys embarrass yourself with your David Ortiz sob stories. I know it plays to the mutts on Staten island but guys, don’t you have any self-respect as “sports” fans? Or better yet … broadcasters?
  • Jacoby Ellsbury was ridiculous this series. Two more weeks of this and he will be named an all-star.
  • Wasn’t Robinson Cano supposed to have a batting title by now?
  • And wasn’t Frank Cervelli supposed to be back in Trenton by now? On nights that he starts, he is in the conversation as the worst starter in the American League.
  • The average AL  OPS for a catcher is .679. The combined OPS of Varitek and Salty is now .688. Granted, a team like the Sox should probably aim for more outperformance than that but given where the Sox were in April, the black hole at catcher is now catching some light.  And with Russ Martin sliding and now hurt, the Sox decision to place a few chips behind Salty is no longer looking that bad.
  • Justin Chamberlain …… we’ll see you in 2013.

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The Future of David Ortiz

Heading into the 2011 season, it looked like the Sox would have somewhere between $50-55M coming off the books at the end of the year. And most of it was dead money that presumably could be replaced on the cheap.

There was $14M for Drew, $12M for Papelbon, $7M for Cameron and another $6M for Scutaro. By excising these contracts from the rolls, the Sox would have plenty in the tank to pay a big escalator to Adrian Gonzalez, bring in a reliever and still have something left over to increase the dividend paid to ownership. Oh yeah, there was also another $12.5M being paid to the DH and most assumed that could be halved going forward.

Think again. Because the thought of David Ortiz taking a pay cut next year seems about as plausible right now as Anthony Weiner someday becoming Mayor of NYC.

I know, I know … DH’s don’t make $12M a year anymore.  Um, they do when they outslug their positional brethren by 200 basis points. And does $12M seem outlandish for a guy whose OPS is 250 basis points higher than the league average for DHs? Continue reading

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Loving The Major League Baseball Draft

The major league baseball draft is clearly the ugly step-child of the three major league drafts but I have a soft spot in my heart for the event. In fact, I love it. So much so that I thought I would take a few moments to share the objects of my affection …….

* I love that there is so much groupthink amongst the “scouts” and any selection made outside of the box is immediately hailed as idiotic. Clearly, darts are thrown poorly on the first night of the baseball draft but I think it’s funny that people who are relying on second, third and fourth hand reports for their info suddenly feel equipped to rip teams that have had fifteen scouts on this job since January (and before).  Teams screw up … NO DOUBT. But let’s let history and not Baseball America be the judge. (Or course, I am exempt from that when discussing the Yankees because  … well, just because.)

* That said …. I love Keith Law. He is amusing and I think he puts in enough work so his opinion should count for something. Mind you, I was careful to say “something” and not “everything.” Plus, every year, he fellates the Red Sox scouting department and I love that this pisses off those who both bow to Law and hate the Sox.  Continue reading

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Sayonara Daisuke Matsuzaka

It is now being reported that Daisuke Matsuzaka will inform the Sox tomorrow that he will have his elbow unzipped and his Ulnar Collateral Ligament repaired. In other words, he is opting for Tommy John surgery. With that, here are five thoughts that crossed my mind.

1)       Hate to say I told you so, but I told you so …. Right on May 18th with this post. Once he headed over to Japan to attend to some “personal” business, was there any doubt?

2)      It’s hard to call this a major setback for the staff as there are comparable replacements. But boy, swapping out of Matsuzaka and into Wakefield is hardly a victory, especially for guys like myself whose patience with Wakefield has been exhausted. Personally, I would hand the ball to Aceves but given Francona’s attachment to Wakefield, that seems like no better than plan B.

3)      With Matsuzaka’s career in Boston over, the Sox now have a hole in the rotation to fill for 2012. The most likely internal candidate is Felix Doubront and with that in mind, he has to be developed this season for that role. So the Sox must resist the temptation to bring him up as an emergency measure to replace Rich Hill, if such a replacement is needed

4)      The Boston Baseball Writers have taken a beating on this story, some more so than others. But by and large, the print guys were handled by Terry Francona, swallowing all of his spoon-fed garbage without putting up a skeptical fight. What about “tear” and “Tommy John” did not compute guys? [ADD: And like clockwork, two guys who have missed particularly badly - Rob Bradford (WEEI) and Ian Browne (MLB) - are out saying this is not a fait accompli because the Sox have a say in the matter]

5)      Per Fangraphs, Matsuzaka finishes his 4+ year career with the Sox with 10.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That equates to about $45M of value which is obviously a far cry from the 103M the Sox will end up paying for Matsuzaka when his posting fee is added to his guarantees. Forty-four cents is a pretty depressed payout but it sure beats the twenty cents that the Sox collected on Matsuzaka’s Free Agent classmate Julio Lugo.

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